This weeks key issue

Greece's recent financial woes have provided a poignant distraction, from the election campaign over the last few days, despite Gordon Browns desperate attempt to steal the limelight. The general consensus is that Brown's gaffe may provide a turning point within this election, aiding the Tories in gaining a workable majority, however despite Murdoch et als best efforts (including the Sun's supposed £50k exclusive with the injured party), the PM's slip of the tongue should by rights take the back seat. Indeed this week is a pivotal week for the race to the finish post on May 6th, however I think Economics will play a far greater part in deciding the outcome than "Duffygate".

Confidence in Greece is at an all time low, and whilst I don't pretend to know a whole lot about economics, a great deal of the British Press have been purporting to scaremonger tactics (I think I read Acropolis Now somewhere) calling for people to vote Tory and give Cameron a workable majority, no surprises for guessing from which international news conglomerate these calls are coming. However for once the Right Wing press may have actually got it right in fanning the flames of fear, right now I encourage everybody to forget their misconceptions about Labour and Conservatives, and vote with their heads, the Liberal Democrats may one day govern this country well and with great prudence, however this election is not, and I believe cannot be about them, it is about safeguarding the future of this country, and for that we need both a workable majority and a party that has "been there and done that". Its a scary thought but right now I dream of the day that George Osbourne (or Alastair Darling for that matter) can sit in his office at the Treasury, red pen and P45s at the ready and help take this country forward unopposed.

Is it time to accept the Liberal Democrats as a credible political player?

Paul Merton on Have I got News for You last week jokingly described the Liberal Democrats as a party founded on the 6th April as a new option to Labour and Conservatives during the coming election. On one level people may just laugh at the Liberal Democrats expense, as similar to Gordon Browns perceived lack of charisma, Nick Cleggs party has for years been treated as political lightweights. This month we have seen a real change to the Liberal Democrats fortunes politically, the mere fact that they are been considered worthy of significant airtime suggests people are sitting up and taking notice.

The influence whether positive or negative of the debates on the outcome of the election, has only aided a liberal resurgence in Westminster the likes of which we haven't seen since the interwar period. The Liberal Democrats of Nick Clegg and Vince Cable is very different to that of Lloyd George and I am yet to be convinced that they can sustain this support especially with a debate on economics coming up, undoubtedly Cleggs weakest and Browns strongest area. I would not be surprised to see an element of "shy-labourism", with public sector workers who may have fashionably declared their support for the Liberal Democrats, switching to Labour in the comfort and safety (relative) of the polling booth.

Courtesy of Paul Waugh at The Standard

This was written by Paul Schneider in defercence to the debate last night.

These X-Factor Style Debate Results are Worryinlgy Influential

The results from the Polls last night read like this:

Populus - Clegg won
Clegg: 36%
Cameron: 27%
Brown: 27%

Guardian/ICM - Clegg won
Clegg: 33%
Cameron: 29%
Brown: 29%

ITV/ComRes - Clegg won
Clegg: 33%
Brown: 30%
Cameron: 30%

Angus Reid - Clegg won
Clegg: 35%
Cameron: 33%
Brown: 23%

YouGov - Cameron won
Cameron: 36%
Clegg: 32%
Brown: 29%

Overwhelmingly these results point to a win for Nick Clegg, in the second debate. However the fact that people are being polled on who won the debate, translates for many people as "I would vote for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats at the General Election". In reality however the only place where the poll results should hold any credence is Sheffield Hallam Nick Clegg's constituency.

This series of debates is presidential both in form and in how the results are published, encouraging people to debate the three leaders personal qualities and speaking ability, rather than the policies of the prospective parties. People after watching this debate will go out on May 6th and vote for Cleggs skill as a speaker or Cameron's dissecting of Labours policies rather than their local Liberal Democrat, Conservative or Labour MP and how they can aid them personally within their constituency.

If come May the Liberal Democrats obtain some position within Whitehall, voters are going to wish they had supported plans to sack MPs, as potentially a fair number of below-par Liberal Democrat candidates may obtain seats on the back of their leaders speaking ability.

I don't mean to detract from instant polling which is brilliantly innovative, however I believe it confirms the political ignorance of much of the electorate who maybe happy to vote without truly understanding party policies far more than it predicts a potential electoral winner.

ComRes Instant Poll

Instant Poll will reveal further boost to Clegg. Cameron has had the most too lose in this debate and has certainly lost it, looking tired and unable to answer questions "off the cuff". YouGov Poll only over the internet so cannot accurately weight their results, I would place more faith in the ComRes poll on ITV at ten.

(nb. Polls are just predictions, too much weight has been put behind certain polls and their impact on the potential election result)

Proportional Representation is it Feasible?

Paul Waugh from the Evening Standard spoke today about Labour potentially calling the Lib Dems bluff on PR replacing First Past the Post as the method of election in Britain.

Scarily the You/Gov Sun Poll published on Sunday suggests 54% of those polled would support Electoral Reform, to counter the taboo that a potential "Hung Parliament" has become. Any potential reform whether it be Alternative Voting as a a method or Proportional Representation would just further fragment British Governance making it far more difficult for a party to form a workable majority. If the electorate want to embrace change then a hung parliament would be a perfect demonstration of things to come, rather than something to shy away from.

The aforementioned Poll also suggests that 33% of those polled intended to vote Lib Dem but a number of Lib Dem policies were vehemently opposed on the same survey for example some of the Lib Dems policies on Europe were opposed by 66% of those polled! This further suggests that people are willing to vote Lib Dem without really understanding their policies.

The decline of the Labour-Conservative Duopoly

This is the first post of what I hope will be an interesting, and balanced blog that will hopefully raise points so far ignored by others.

There is a lot of talk at the moment of a percieved "democratic deficit" within British politics. I am sure this is apparent to the three major party leaders and their advisors more than ever at the moment, as the debate reverborates through out Pubs, Living Rooms and the Blogosphere: does our Electoral System needs reforming? This point has been and will continue to be debated throughout the foreseeable future, as the election campaign reaches its zenith.

The key issue here is not "Nick Clegg the saviour of Britain" or even the more perverse comparison between Clegg and the Nazis which has beeen doing the circuits over the last few days but rather the trend in the UK away from the Labour-Conservative duopoly, to elections yielding a more fractured result. Since Labours ill fated attempt to form a coalition with the Liberals in 1977, 10 Elections have yielded results with a single party achieving a majority of 40 seats or greater, the percentage of the votes needed to secure a large majority has gradually diminished (Labour in 1997 won with a majority of 43.2% and 35.2% in 2005) granted with this example Labours majority diminished during the 8 year spell but still had a huge majority in 2005, indeed this can be seen clearly by the mountain the Conservatives have to climb to achieve a workable government today.

These statistics can be read one of two ways:

• Firstly this reduction could be attributed to a reduction in voter turnout although this is likely to be redressed in May, with a siginifcant increase in voter registration.
• The British public has become more politically diverse: parties such as the Green Party, UKIP and most significanlty the Liberal Democrats have been chipping away at established Labour and Conservative support, thereby reducing the previously effective duopoly.

This election has seen twitter, facebook and the internet as a whole come to the fore, it will be interesting to see just what proportion of the sub 25 age group vote and for whom, the duopoly will continue in British Politics but it remains to be seen if Electoral reform, or greater politcal activism will change that.